U.S. Meat Exports Face Uncertainty as China Fails to Renew Registrations

Critical Trade Disruption Looms for American Farmers

Export registrations for over 1,000 U.S. meat processing plants, previously approved under the 2020 "Phase 1" trade agreement with China, have expired, according to updates on China’s General Administration of Customs website. This development jeopardizes U.S. meat exports to China, the world’s top meat importer, raising concerns about significant financial losses for American farmers and meat producers amid escalating trade disputes. The affected facilities include plants owned by industry giants such as Tyson Foods, Smithfield Packaged Meats, and Cargill Meat Solutions, with their registration status shifting from "effective" to "expired." Industry experts estimate that this lapse could lead to losses exceeding $5 billion, amplifying the economic strain on U.S. agriculture following China’s recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of American farm products. The expiration impacts approximately two-thirds of the 1,842 U.S. meat plants certified for export to China, threatening market access for pork, beef, and poultry products in a key global market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has emphasized that China has not responded to multiple requests to renew these registrations, a move that could breach the terms of the Phase 1 trade deal. Signed in 2020, this agreement required China to update its list of approved U.S. meat plants within 20 days of receiving updates from the USDA, ensuring smooth trade flow. However, with no response from China’s customs authorities to inquiries from Reuters, uncertainty looms over the future of U.S. meat exports to China. In 2024, the U.S. supplied 590,000 tons of meat to China, accounting for 9% of the country’s total meat imports and ranking as the third-largest supplier by volume behind Brazil and Argentina. By value, U.S. meat exports to China hit $2.5 billion, making it the second-largest exporter, underscoring the critical role this market plays for American producers. The potential loss of this market is particularly concerning for exporters of niche products like chicken feet and pork offal, which see limited demand domestically but are highly valued in China.

This trade disruption follows a pattern of escalating tensions between the two nations. Earlier this year, 84 U.S. meat plants saw their registrations lapse in February, yet shipments from these facilities have continued to clear Chinese customs, leaving exporters in a precarious limbo. Industry observers note that while temporary allowances may persist, the long-term outlook remains unclear without formal renewals. Smithfield Foods CEO Shane Smith recently highlighted the challenges posed by tariffs, noting that while his company does not ship substantial meat volumes to China, it relies heavily on exporting offal products such as pig stomachs, hearts, and heads. These products, less popular in the U.S., are a lifeline for maximizing profitability in the pork industry, making China’s market access vital. For companies like Tyson Foods and Cargill, the stakes are equally high, as their extensive networks of processing plants face potential exclusion from one of the world’s most lucrative meat markets.

The broader context of U.S.-China trade relations adds complexity to this situation. China’s recent tariffs on American agricultural goods, combined with stricter inspections at ports like Shanghai, have increased processing times and costs for U.S. meat shipments. Reports suggest that these measures may be retaliatory, tied to U.S. tariff policies under President Trump’s administration, which recently doubled duties on Chinese goods. The Phase 1 deal, intended to stabilize trade by boosting Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products, has fallen short of expectations, with China failing to meet purchase targets even before the pandemic. Now, as the agreement’s terms appear to unravel, the USDA and the U.S. Meat Export Federation are prioritizing diplomatic efforts to restore registrations, though no immediate progress has been reported. Some optimism remains, as a senior diplomat in Beijing indicated that several hundred U.S. plants have had their registrations extended to 2028 or 2029, suggesting a partial reprieve for certain exporters.

For American farmers and meat processors, the stakes could not be higher. The $5 billion loss projection reflects not only direct export revenue but also the ripple effects across the supply chain, from livestock producers to transportation and logistics providers. The U.S. meat industry, already grappling with domestic challenges like labor shortages and fluctuating feed costs, now faces the daunting prospect of finding alternative markets if China’s doors close permanently. Historically, China has maintained trade with other nations while resolving registration delays, offering a glimmer of hope that a resolution could emerge. However, the lack of communication from Beijing, coupled with heightened trade hostilities, suggests that restoring U.S. meat export access to China may require prolonged negotiations.

Stakeholders in the U.S. meat industry are closely monitoring developments, with the USDA actively engaging Chinese counterparts to address this crisis. The situation remains fluid, with potential shifts in policy or customs practices that could either mitigate or exacerbate the impact. For now, the expiration of these registrations stands as a stark reminder of the fragility of international trade agreements in the face of geopolitical tensions. American producers, particularly those reliant on China’s demand for specialized meat products, are bracing for a challenging road ahead as they navigate this unprecedented disruption in U.S.-China meat export relations.